On a week-on-week basis, the US Dollar Index (DX) weakened around 0.7 as better-than-expected pending home sales and consumer spending overshadowed the unfavorable unemployment claims and lower-than estimated economic growth data from the country which led to upbeat sentiments in the US markets. The Indian Rupee (INR) witnessed depreciation of almost 1 percent in the last week taking cues from weak sentiments in the domestic markets after rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) lower the country’s outlook to negative from stable due to slow growth on its fiscal condition and weakening economic indicators. In addition to this, rising concerns over capital inflows in the country and month-end dollar demand from the oil importers also affected the currency.
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The Japanese yen is slightly stronger, as USD/JPY is trading at 81.10. CSPI will be released later on Monday. The March reading dropped by 0.6%, a sixth-month low. No change is expected by the markets in this month’s release. USD/ JPY is trading within range, at 0.8122. CSPI dropped, but still beat the market forecast. The consumer indicator posted a figure of -0.3%, while the markets had forecast a reading of -0.6%. The yen has edged upwards, with USD/JPY trading at 81.25. The markets are waiting for a host of releases on Thursday, including Retail Sales and CPI. All Industries Activity declined, posting a reading of -0.1%. This was just shy of the market forecast of 0.0%. USD/JPY has dropped below the 81 level, trading at 80.889.
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There are no Swiss economic releases until Tuesday. USD/CHF is in a narrow range, as the pair is trading at 0.9154. Trade Balance plunged in March, declining to a surplus of 1.69B. The weak reading caught the markets off guard, as the forecast had predicted a surplus of 2.59B. The Consumption Indicator sparkled, climbing to 1.22. This marked the first time the indicator has been above the 1.0 level since August 2011. USD/CHF has dropped slightly, trading below the 0.91 level, at 0.9091. The markets are waiting for the release of the KOF Economic Barometer later in the week. The forecast calls for a reading of 0.26, which would be the highest figure since last November.
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GBP/USD has slid below the 1.61 level, trading at 1.6083. The markets are waiting for the release of the Public Sector Net Borrowing on Tuesday. The market prediction is not looking good, calling for the deficit to increase to 15.6B, up from 12.9B in March. Public Sector Borrowing ballooned last month, as the reading of 15.9B was even worse than the market forecast of 15.0B. This was the highest deficit recorded by the public sector since April 2011. GBP/USD has moved upwards, trading at 1.6158. The pair is now at its highest level since last October. British GDP dropped 0.2% in Q3, disappointing the markets, which had forecast a 0.1% increase. Index of Services was also weak, posting a reading of 0.2%. This was well below the market forecast of 0.6%. The pound is dropping and testing the 1.61 level, as GBP/USD is trading at 1.6099. GBP has recovered and is moving upwards, trading at 1.6177. Nationwide Consumer Confidence sparkled last month, posting a reading of 53.
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EUR/USD gaps lower at the open as the first round of French presidential elections leaves a lot of room for uncertainty. Socialist challenger Francois Holland did quite well, and he has called for a renegotiation of the Euro-zone fiscal agreement, in order to encourage growth. Monday morning started with a host of releases today out of the Euro-zone, France and Germany, with many falling below the market forecast. French Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.3, exactly as predicted. However, both the German and Euro-zone Flash Manufacturing PMI were below the market prediction. Euro-zone Flash Services PMI posted a reading of 47.9, slightly below the market forecast. German Flash Services PMI came in at 52.6 almost matching the market forecast. French Flash Services PMI was the biggest disappointment, as it dropped to a six-month low. The index came in at 46.4, well below the market forecast of 50.3. EUR/USD continues to slide, trading at 1.3137. Euro-zone Industrial New Orders were a major disappointment, posting a reading of -1.3%. The markets had predicted a rise of 1.4%.
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USD/CAD has bunped up close to the parity level, trading at 0.9970. The markets are waiting for the release of two key indicators on Tuesday. The first is Core Retail Sales, one of the most important consumer indicators. As well, the head of the Bank of Canada will be speaking, and the markets will be hoping to get a clue as to future monetary policy. The loonie has moved higher, as USD/CAD is trading just above the 0.99 level, at 0.9905. After a decline in March, Core Retail Sales rose 0.5%, close to the market forecast of 0.6%. Retail Sales did not fare much better, posting a decline of -0.2%. The markets had forecast a 0.1% increase. The loonie contiues to push upwards, as USD/CAD is trading at 0.9862. The pair has not traded at such a low level since early March.
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Despite the BOJ's moves early Friday to increase asset purchaces, the Yen remains offered against the Greenback. Traders fading rallies into the daily trendline resistance have profited handsomely. The latest rejection at 81.50 likely has USD/JPY bulls in fits as the pair now is poised to test the 80.00 figure to end the week.
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